This episode of ID the Future is 17 minutes long. It’s the third in a series – here are parts one and two.
Details:
On this episode of ID the Future, Casey Luskin and Stephen Meyer finish up their talk with a discussion of why intelligent design presents the best explanation for the Cambrian explosion.
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What sort of reasoning did Darwin use in The Origin of Species?
Can this method of “inference to the best explanation” be applied to the Cambrian explosion
The importance of appealing to causes that we have experienced ourselves
Example: explaining from an effect (volcanic ash) to a cause that his adequate (volcanic eruption)
We have experience of how volcanoes cause the ash, so we should infer based on what we know
In the case where the effect is information in biology, we see that naturalistic mechanisms are inadequate
But we know from our own experience that intelligent agents can generate information
Many people think that science must confine itself to materialistic explanations
If so, then it is possible miss out on the true explanation by ruling it out before looking at evidence
If you haven’t yet read Meyer’s first book, “Signature in the Cell”, you should probably grab that one. It’s the best book on intelligent design that’s out right now. It talks about the origin of the first living cell, surveying all naturalistic explanations for it, and concluding that the best explanation – the one most consistent with what we know now – is intelligent design.
Last time, they discussed how the sudden origin of animal body plans requires an infusion of new information
Also, the sudden origin of animal forms is inexplicable naturalistically, because there are no transitional forms
New body plans require new genetic information
The Cambrian explosion involve a sudden increase of body plans, which means a sudden increase of information
For example, a new body plan requires dozens of new cell types
Each cell type will be composed of new proteins and enzymes
Proteins are composed of functional sequences of amino acids – genetic information
Can the neo-Darwinian mechanisms generate new functional sequences?
The problem with making functional sequences by chance: Product Rule
When calculating probabilities of forming a functional sequence, you multiply to calculate probabilities
A bike lock with 4 dials and 10 possibilities has 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 10,000 possibilities
Each sequence is equally likely to get by random guesses
But it’s far more likely that any random attempt will NOT work
Getting one or two settings right has no value to opening the lock, and will not be saved for later attempts
There is no credit for partial success: you have to get the whole combination right the first time
In addition, there are other sources of information other than DNA that are required for new body plans
For example, there is information in cell membranes, cytoskeletons, etc. which is also needed
Neo-Darwinism can only work on mutating genes – even in the best case it would just give you new proteins
Neo-Darwinism cannot add information in non-genome areas, which are required for new animal forms
The information in these non-genome areas are required to arrange the proteins to make new body pans
Genetic inofrmation = information in the genome, Epigenetic information = information outside the genome
This problem of information outside the genome is called “the problem of the origin of form”
So those last few points are, I think, a sneak peek into the contents of the new “Darwin’s Doubt” book.
If you haven’t yet read Meyer’s first book, “Signature in the Cell”, you should probably grab that one. It’s the best book on intelligent design that’s out right now. It talks about the origin of the first living cell, surveying all naturalistic explanations for it, and concluding that the best explanation – the one most consistent with what we know now – is intelligent design.
Let’s calculate the odds of building a protein composed of a functional chain of 100 amino acids, by chance. (Think of a meaningful English sentence built with 100 scrabble letters, held together with glue)
Sub-problems:
BONDING: You need 99 peptide bonds between the 100 amino acids. The odds of getting a peptide bond is 50%. The probability of building a chain of one hundred amino acids in which all linkages involve peptide bonds is roughly (1/2)^99 or 1 chance in 10^30.
CHIRALITY: You need 100 left-handed amino acids. The odds of getting a left-handed amino acid is 50%. The probability of attaining at random only L–amino acids in a hypothetical peptide chain one hundred amino acids long is (1/2)^100 or again roughly 1 chance in 10^30.
SEQUENCE: You need to choose the correct amino acid for each of the 100 links. The odds of getting the right one are 1 in 20. Even if you allow for some variation, the odds of getting a functional sequence is (1/20)^100 or 1 in 10^65.
The final probability of getting a functional protein composed of 100 amino acids is 1 in 10^125. Even if you fill the universe with pre-biotic soup, and react amino acids at Planck time (very fast!) for 14 billion years, you are probably not going to get even 1 such protein. And you need at least 100 of them for minimal life functions, plus DNA and RNA.
Research performed by Doug Axe at Cambridge University, and published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Molecular Biology, has shown that the number of functional amino acid sequences is tiny:
Doug Axe’s research likewise studies genes that it turns out show great evidence of design. Axe studied the sensitivities of protein function to mutations. In these “mutational sensitivity” tests, Dr. Axe mutated certain amino acids in various proteins, or studied the differences between similar proteins, to see how mutations or changes affected their ability to function properly. He found that protein function was highly sensitive to mutation, and that proteins are not very tolerant to changes in their amino acid sequences. In other words, when you mutate, tweak, or change these proteins slightly, they stopped working. In one of his papers, he thus concludes that “functional folds require highly extraordinary sequences,” and that functional protein folds “may be as low as 1 in 10^77.”
The problem of forming DNA by sequencing nucleotides faces similar difficulties. And remember, mutation and selection cannot explain the origin of the first sequence, because mutation and selection require replication, which does not exist until that first living cell is already in place.
But you can’t show that to your friends, you need to send them a video. And I have a video!
A video of Doug Axe explaining the calculation
Here’s a clip from Illustra Media’s new ID DVD “Darwin’s Dilemma”, which features Doug Axe and Stephen Meyer (both with Ph.Ds from Cambridge University).
Illustra also made two other great DVDs on intelligent design. The first two DVDs “Unlocking the Mystery of Life” and “The Privileged Planet” are must-buys, but you can watch them on youtube if you want, for free.
WINTERY KNIGHT 