Tag Archives: Great Depression

US money supply contracting at Great Depression levels

The most-read story today on the UK Telegraph. (H/T ECM)

Excerpt:

The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history.

The M3 figures – which include broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance – began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.

The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6%. The assets of insitutional money market funds fell at a 37% rate, the sharpest drop ever.

“It’s frightening,” said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. “The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly,” he said.

What should we expect from a man who opposes capitalism? Well, we should expect to be poor. We should expect to be as poor as people were during the Great Depression.

I have an idea. Next time, let’s elect someone who is responsible enough to have his own credit card.

Did Obamacare really provide a tax cut for small businesses?

Check out this AP article. (H/T Michele Bachmann)

Excerpt:

When the administration unveiled the small business tax credit earlier this week, officials touted its “broad eligibility” for companies with fewer than 25 workers and average annual wages under $50,000 that provide health coverage.

[…]Lost in the fine print: The credit drops off sharply once a company gets above 10 workers and $25,000 average annual wages.

[…]Consider small businesses: “The idea here is to target the credits to a relatively low number of firms, those who are low-wage and really quite small,” said economist Linda Blumberg of the Urban Institute public policy center.

On paper, the credit seems to be available to companies with fewer than 25 workers and average wages of $50,000. But in practice, a complicated formula that combines the two numbers works against companies that have more than 10 workers and $25,000 in average wages, Blumberg said.

“You can get zero even if you are not hitting the max on both pieces,” Blumberg said.

[…]Hoffman, the furniture store owner whose business missed out on the credit, says he understands that lawmakers writing the health care legislation had a limited amount of money to work with. But his company’s premiums rose 15 percent this year, and it’s a struggle to keep paying.

To get the most out of the new federal credit, Hoffman said he’d have to cut his work force to 10 employees and slash their wages.

“That seems like a strange outcome, given we’ve got 10 percent unemployment,” he said.

So, the government is actually paying businesses to NOT HIRE EMPLOYEES and to NOT RAISE SALARIES. That’s the only way small businesses can get the tax credit.

Michele writes:

Unfortunately, this bill will only discourage small businesses from raising wages and/or hiring more employees.  The business owners and employers in Minnesota I’ve met with all have said one thing: the uncertainty of the newly passed Health Care bill is keeping them from hiring and expanding.

Businesses are run by people who put their own skin in the game by risking capital to try to make a profit. That capital is often borrowed from family, friends or banks. And when business owners see that government is passing laws that take away the decision making power of the business owner and give it to government bureaucrats with no skin in the game, business owners get frightened – they are taking all the risks but the government is making the decisions. And government isn’t as good at making decisions for a business to avoid losses as the business owner is.

So even though Obama spends trillions of dollars, bankrupting the next generation of taxpayers, it can still be the case that unemployment increases. He’s killing the economy with his meddling – just the same way as interventionists like Hoover and FDR did during the Great Depression. When business owners see that the rules are changing under them because of state intervention into the economy, they just don’t have the confidence needed to expand their businesses, hire employees, or raise salaries.

And don’t forget that the money for the “tax credit” is being taken from your children, who will eventually have to pay for all of Obama’s spending.

The Democrats are considering carbon tariffs on imported goods

Robert P. Murphy’s linked to this post he wrote at the Institute for Energy Research. Murphy is concerned that Obama is going down the same path as that interventionist Herbert Hoover did. Hoover passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which led the United States into the Great Depression. Murphy thinks that carbon tariffs could be on the way!

Here is an an excerpt from Murphy’s post:

…the Obama administration—under the guise of fighting climate change—is testing the waters with new restrictions on imports. Specifically, lawmakers on the House Energy and Commerce Committee are considering imposing “carbon tariffs” to prevent foreign nations from gaining a competitive advantage vis-à-vis U.S. producers who are burdened with a forthcoming cap-and-trade regime. The idea is that the U.S. government would slap a huge “compensatory” tax on imports that were produced in foreign nations that do not impose carbon legislation on their manufacturers.

Murphy explains why free trade increases the prosperity of all nations, by promoting efficient production:

Even without retaliation, a unilateral tariff increase makes Americans poorer. The gains to the workers in the “protected” domestic industry are more than offset by the loss to consumers who have to pay higher prices. A tariff is a tax on American consumers; the government says to its own citizens, “If you want to buy a product from a foreign producer, you have to make a side payment to the U.S. Treasury.” You don’t make a country richer by jacking up taxes on its own consumers.

International trade allows countries to specialize in their “comparative advantage,” or their areas of relative expertise. It would be catastrophic if everyone had to grow his own food, sew his own clothes, and drill his own cavities. We all benefit tremendously from the ability to specialize in occupations at which we are better than our peers, and then trade with each other.

The same principle applies to entire countries, which are simply aggregates of the individuals living in them. Because of differences in resource endowments, industrial infrastructure, weather, and the skills of the workforce, it is much more efficient for certain regions of the world to concentrate on a few key items and export them to other regions. When the government raises tax barriers, it interferes with this process and makes everyone poorer on average.

Not only do tariffs hurt consumers, but they also destroy businesses that export products. First, those businesses will have to pay more for raw materials. Second, the goods they export to other countries will face import tariffs. This will cost more American jobs than are “saved” by imposing tariffs. And the government gets the money from tariffs, not the productive private sector.

Murphy explains how global warming is really just a euphemism for economically-ignorant socialism:

Even if the threat from man-made climate change is as serious as some scientists claim, this fact would not overturn the centuries of work done by economic scientists. We know from both theory and history that raising trade barriers in the middle of a severe worldwide recession is a terrible policy. We also know from theory and history that government central planning does not work. When the technocrats reorder the economy, deciding which firms will survive and which prices are too high or too low, the results are disastrous. It doesn’t matter whether the justification is “fighting the Depression” (as in the 1930s) or “fighting climate change” (as in today’s discussions). Either way, central planning will wreck the economy, and it won’t even achieve its ostensible goals.

I recommend you go there and read the whole article. Think of the future of your children, and of your neighbor’s children.

Related story over at Stop the ACLU: “EPA may soon deem CO2 a threat to human health“. I blogged before about cap and trade, tax hikes on oil, the world’s anger at tariffs, and the myth of global warming.