Are gay activists telling the truth about violence against transgender people?

Thinking about transgenderism
Thinking about transgenderism

I’ve been interviewing people to see how their views on moral issues are formed, especially the Christians. I noticed that most people don’t have time to consult evidence when forming their opinions. Whether they have a progressive worldview or the conservative view, it’s just easier to form that view based on wanting to feel good and be like instead of based on evidence.

Here’s some evidence from Quillette about one issue where views are often formed from feelings and peer-approval, instead of reason and evidence:

The claim that there’s an “epidemic” of fatal anti-transgender violence in the United States has been made widely in recent years. A Google search for the phrase “epidemic of anti-trans violence” turns up pieces from the New York Times, NBC National News, ABC National News, and the Human Rights Campaign, a leading LGBT lobby group—among 2,500,000 other results. The HRC’s primary on-point article was headlined ‘A National Epidemic: Fatal Anti-Transgender Violence,’ while the Times led with ‘Eighteen Transgender Killings This Year Raise Fears of an Epidemic.’ Transgender Day of Remembrance has been celebrated since the late 1990s to honor those “members of the transgender community whose lives were lost in acts of anti-transgender violence,” and the American Medical Association has stated on record that fatal attacks on transgender people—particularly minority trans women—constitute a large part of an “epidemic of violence” against the trans community.

What’s interesting is that even the far-left Human Rights Campaign, which leads the fight to suppress free speech critical of the gay agenda, admits that the numbers are tiny:

The Human Rights Campaign maintains a year-by-year database containing every known case of a transgender individual being killed by violent means, and gives this number as 29 in 2017, 26 in 2018, and 22 in 2019. Not only do these figures not reflect a year-by-year increase in attacks on trans persons—they are remarkably consistent, and may be trending slightly downwards—they also indicate that the trans murder rate is significantly lower than the murder rate for Americans overall.

Let’s crunch the numbers. Taking the HRC’s highest recent estimate of trans fatalities (29) as representative, and assuming the transgender population to be 0.6 per cent of the U.S. population—although some trans activists argue the true figure is as high as 3 per cent, which would make the murder rate even lower—the total number of murders in a hypothetical all-trans USA would be roughly 4,800 per year (4,833). In other words, if you multiply the population of the US (327,167,434) by 0.6 per cent you get a current transgender population estimate of 1,963,004.6, and if you divide that figure by 29 (the number of murders) you get 67,690—one murder per 67,690 trans citizens. That works out as a projected annual total of 4,833 murders (327,167,434/67,690) in an all-trans America, with an annual murder rate of 1.48 per 100,000 Americans. That’s about one-fourth of the actual current murder rate: there were 16,214 recorded homicides in the United States in 2018 (five per 100,000) and 17,294 in 2017. While LGBT advocates may be correct that there is some under-reporting of the transgender murder rate because not all trans individuals are “out,” the fact is that the murder rate for trans people would have to increase by 300-400 per cent to match the murder rate for the general population.

Well, to be fair, even one person being murdered is too much, but most of these victims were not killed because of any kind of discrimination or “hate”:

Not only is there no “epidemic” of murders of transgender individuals, it’s also not true that most trans murders are motivated by “hate.” The first case I reviewed while researching this article, that of Claire Legato, involved a trans woman killed while attempting to break up a physical dispute over a financial debt between her own mother and a close family friend. This was not atypical. The conservative writer Chad Greene, himself a member of the LGBT community, recently reviewed a sample of 118 of the cases of anti-trans homicide compiled by the Human Rights Campaign. His conclusion: exactly four of the perpetrators were clearly motivated by “anti-trans bias,” animus, or hatred. In contrast, 37 of the murders were due to domestic violence, and 24 involved sex workers and were largely the result of the dangerous working conditions associated with illegal sex work.

[…]In addition to not being hate crimes, the majority of transgender murders are intra-racial. According to Greene, whose conclusions align with my own analysis, 34 of the 37 identified murderers of black trans persons killed between 2015 and 2019 (89.5 per cent) are themselves black.

I think these numbers are useful to have at hand, should someone try to convince you to accept their view by claiming that not accepting their view has led to “a national epidemic” of violence. I’m against trying to convince people by bullying them with victimhood in any case. If you have a rational case that some view is morally right or wrong, then make your case. I am always very interested to see how secular leftists try to argue for a moral standard that is binding on those who disagree with them, when they believe the universe is a random accident with no plan or purpose.

4 thoughts on “Are gay activists telling the truth about violence against transgender people?”

  1. WK – What I’m about to write isn’t intended as a shock or an insult, but is shocking nonetheless if your audience is not aware of the widely-known, hidden-in-plain-sight truth of the “alternative” lifestyle. For reference, I lived in what I call the “gay epicenter” of the universe (San Francisco’s Castro neighborhood) for nearly a decade in the 90’s. I was not part of the lifestyle, but it was impossible to live there and not get to know people who were.

    Not only are the numbers tiny, but what the gay community in general (and the trans community, in particular) won’t tell you (because it’s so damaging to the fiction of their political message) is that they thrive on pushing boundaries. Gay men love flaunting convention, they reject monogamy, they seek out promiscuity, they engage in risky unprotected anal sex on purpose – as a badge of their “gayness.” The trans community seeks validation of their ability to pass as women, by fooling heterosexual men into being attracted to them. Trans men will often intentionally seek out men they suspect will be violent because they get a thrill from luring straight men to the point of intercourse and then revealing their trans-nature. They get a thrill from the threat of (and escape from) violence.

    The “alternative” sexual culture is an outlier on the Bell curve of human sexuality – by definition. But that’s not the only Bell curve where they occupy a position that is several standard deviations away from the norm. That shouldn’t be surprising, but what people need to recognize is that the gay/trans community wants it that way. They don’t want to be mainstream. The moment society mainstreams today’s deviant sexual behavior, the gay/trans community will move on to ever more radically deviant behavior. They don’t define themselves by a set of fixed, permanent behaviors, they define themselves by provoking/opposing/rejecting mainstream culture.

    As an aside, I strongly suspect the reason for this is that they are using their “activism” as a distraction from facing some other problem in their lives. If they ever allowed themselves to be satisfied with being accepted by the broader culture they would shortly realize that they’re still unhappy. And that their unhappiness is of their own making, not a result of “society.”


  2. In my former home town, there were two “trans” murders that were a big deal in the media as “hate crimes,” but in fact were two cross-dressing male prostitutes. That part of their story didn’t appear in the press for months, and when it finally did it was brief and buried in the ad section.


    1. That’s what happened with the Matthew shepherd case. It emerged years later that the murder was really a drug-related robbery between people who knew each other.


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