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Canadians brace themselves for a federal election

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Prime Minister Stephen Harper
Prime Minister Stephen Harper

This just in! The Conservatives are going to take a shot at winning a majority.

Excerpt:

Canadians may face their fourth federal election in seven years as early as May, after opposition parties said they wouldn’t back Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s fiscal plan.

Leaders of all three opposition parties said that C$7.6 billion ($7.7 billion) in new measures announced yesterday by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty weren’t enough to warrant their support. Harper will face a Liberal motion of non-confidence on March 25.

Opposition lawmakers are seeking to benefit from what they say have been ethics violations by Harper’s administration, including accusations by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff that former Harper aide Bruce Carson was peddling influence with companies seeking state contracts, as well as charges that ministers have misled Parliament. Harper has said he doesn’t want an election that could undermine the country’s recovery.

“The opposition parties are going to talk about contempt of Parliament and ethics” to weaken the government’s position, said Robert Drummond, a political scientist at York University in Toronto. The Conservatives “are going to want to talk about their economic record.”

I don’t know why the opposition parties would focus on ethics – according to the latest poll, the Conservatives have them beat solidly on ethics.

Excerpt:

In the poll, Canadians were given two choices for what they think is the most important issue in the election.

Sixty-three per cent said that “electing a party and leader that will provide honest, open and trustworthy government” is more important.

By comparison, 37% believe that “electing a party and leader that will make sure that our economic recovery continues” is more important.

Those findings, on their surface, should be good news for the Liberals. But in an ironic twist, the very issue the Liberals are trumpeting could backfire on them in a campaign.

Here’s why:

• 28% of Canadians believe the Conservatives, if re-elected, would do the best job of “providing honest, open and trustworthy government.”

• 22% believe the NDP would do the best job of this.

• Just 15% say the Liberals would be best at providing honest, open and trustworthy government.

And more:

When it comes to the party that can do the best job at “making sure our economic recovery continues,” 37% chose the Tories, while significantly fewer believe the Liberals (20%), NDP (14%) or Bloc (6%) are best positioned to do this.

Nearly one-quarter (23%) don’t believe any of these parties would do the best job at this.

Thinking about which party would “keep taxes under control,” 36% believe the Conservatives are best able to do this, while fewer believe the Liberals (17%), NDP (16%) or Bloc (6%) are best positioned to do this. Twenty-five per cent think that some other party would do a better job with this.

One in three (33%) believe the Conservatives would do the best job at “spending taxpayers money wisely,” while others believe the NDP (18%), Liberals (16%) or Bloc (6%) would do the best job of this. Another 27% don’t believe any of these parties would do the best job at spending taxpayers money wisely.

The Conservatives currently have 143 seats, with 155 needed for a majority. The latest poll puts them just shy of a majority.

UPDATE: An even later poll puts Harper at 43% support.

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Stephen Harper’s Conservatives up to 43% in latest federal election poll

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Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper

For my Canadian readers, especially Tory Ninja. (H/T Ben)

Excerpt:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have opened up a wide lead against their political rivals in public favour and would be close to winning a majority if an election occurred now, a new poll has found.

The national survey, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global National, found that the Tories are now supported by 43% of decided voters — up by four points from early February.

That finding by pollster Ipsos Reid is significant, as the level of support is near the threshold that experts believe the Tories need to win their long-coveted majority.

The Conservatives haven’t been this popular since they enjoyed a brief spike in the polls in December 2008 when Canadians were opposed to the opposition parties’ efforts to create a coalition government.

The new survey shows the Tories have a 16-point lead over the Liberals, led by Michael Ignatieff. The Grits, who have been trying to stoke voter anger over the government’s performance, have the support of 27% of voters, up by two points.

Jack Layton’s NDP appears to be in political decline as it makes demands to the government over what should be in the budget. The New Democrats would receive 13% of the vote, down by five points.

Similarly, the Green party, led by Elizabeth May, is in trouble. It would receive five per cent of the vote, down by five points.

Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Quebecois has 10%of the vote nationally and still has a commanding lead in Quebec.

“What you’re seeing in the numbers is a continuation of a trend that started over the past two months,” said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker on Tuesday.

“And one could say that with these types of numbers, the Tories are well poised to potentially form a majority.”

Bricker said that two major factors are at work: Canadians are generally optimistic about the economy and are giving credit to the Harper government, and the negative Conservative TV ads which take aim at Ignatieff’s political ambitions and patriotism are working.

[…]Bricker said another trend is occurring which works in the Tories’ favour: They are increasingly attracting support beyond their traditional base.

The new poll finds the Tories receiving more support from middle-income Canadians, women, university-educated voters and foreign-born Canadians.

“They’re flattening out those demographic differences and becoming more mainstream,” said Bricker.

[…]The federal political parties are preparing for the possibility of an election that could be precipitated by a budget in late March.

[…]In every region but Quebec, the Tories are leading in public opinion.

This poll puts them in majority territory, because last time they only won by 37.65% to 26.26% but they won 143 seats. 155 seats are needed for a majority, so 43% would definitely do the job. Anything over 40% is good.

Stephen Harper has a BA and MA in Economics, and is cutting the corporate tax rate to HALF of the US corporate tax rate. In Canada, voters are concerned about JOBS, not about Harper’s skin color, happy-talk or handsomeness. Canadians understand that if you woo corporations and businesses with low taxes and fewe regulations, you get the jobs. Harper also supports free trade, so that Canadians can sell their goods to foreign markets, and buy good from abroad for a cheaper price, either for consumption of manufacturing. This results in even MORE jobs.

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Poll finds 68% of Canadians positive on Canadian economy

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Map of Canada
Map of Canada

From the leftist Globe and Mail.

Excerpt:

A new international survey shows Canadians are in a very positive mood about the state of the economy, suggesting the opposition parties face an uphill battle pushing for change on the eve of a possible federal election.

Describing Canada as a “superstar,” an Ipsos online survey of citizens in 24 countries finds 68 per cent of Canadians are feeling good about the economy. Those January numbers are up six points from a month earlier.

[…]The contrast between Canada’s positive mood and some other G8 countries is particularly striking. Only 20 per cent of Americans said their economy was good and even more pessimism was reported for Britain, France, Italy and Japan.

Canada’s results place it sixth of the 24 countries surveyed, behind Sweden (82 per cent); Saudi Arabia (80 per cent); Australia (78 per cent); India (76 per cent) and China (74 per cent).

Ipsos senior vice-president John Wright, who is based in Toronto and is responsible for the international survey, says the numbers are good news for the Conservatives because other surveys show Canadians give Prime Minister Stephen Harper high marks for managing the economy.

“It plays to [the Conservatives’] strong hand and more importantly it contrasts with an opposition party which doesn’t seem to be on that track,” he said in an interview. “The opposition – whether it be the NDP or the Liberals – are talking about things that are below the national concerns.”

Mr. Wright said the Conservatives “own” the issue of the economy, placing them on very solid ground heading in to a possible federal election.

“It’s usually governments are thrown out, they’re not voted in,” he said. The flurry of Conservative ads criticizing Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff have also proven to be “very, very effective,” he said.

The latest federal election poll has the capitalist Stephen Harper and his Conservative party on the boundary of a Parliamentary majority. They currently have 143 seats, with 155 needed for a majority.

Canada Election Poll 2011
Canada Election Poll 2011

Harper has a BA and MA in Economics, and is cutting the corporate tax rate to HALF of the US corporate tax rate. It’s about JOBS. If you love corporations and businesses with low taxes and less regulations, you get the jobs. He also supports free trade, so that Canadians can sell their goods to foreign markets, and buy good from abroad for a cheaper price, either for consumption of manufacturing. More jobs. It’s all about the jobs for the capitalists. They just want more and more jobs. That’s why they keep making conditions better for employers.

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