Tag Archives: Election Results

James Pethokoukis projects 301-237 for Romney, Steve Ertelt projects 285-253 for Romney

If you haven’t voted yet, please go vote! There is still time, especially in central, mountain and western time zones. If you have voted already, here’s a nice article to reward you while we wait for the election results. And thank you for voting!

From Jimmy Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute.


Based on both polls and reporting, my best guess is that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States, winning the two-party popular vote 51% to 49% and the electoral vote by 301 to 237 for President Obama.

There is some upside potential here for Romney, especially in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The bounce from superstorm Sandy is fading, though it may be enough to get Obama N.H in the Northeast where the president has surged, distorting the top-line numbers in some recent national polls.

Many pollsters are not catching the stratospheric GOP enthusiasm, particularlyamong voters of faith, in voting for Romney and Paul Ryan — not just against Obama and Joe Biden. In this way, the Bush-Kerry parallel from 2004 does not hold up. (Oh, and think twice before betting against Michael Barone when elections are on the line.) So there you go.

And Steve Ertelt of Life News.


LifeNews is projecting that pro-life Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will win tomorrow’s presidential election and defeat President Barack Obama 285-253 in the Electoral College vote.

[…]The election map will look more like the close contests of 2000 and 2004, where I correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states, but turnout and enthusiasm appears to be on the side of Romney and the Republicans. Poll after poll shows GOP voters and independents, who favor Romney over Obama by wide margins, are much more enthused about voting than Obama’s base Democrats. The youth vote will not be as significant as it was in 2008 for Obama but the evangelical turnout will be stronger this time.

Ultimately, elections turn on the economy. The economy has been stagnant and voters will choose Mitt Romney to see if he can turn it around.

At this point, I am reiterating my 52-47 popular vote prediction for Romney. My electoral college prediction is 295-243 for Romney. Steve agrees with me in every state except Wisconsin, which is the one state that I have doubts about. Michael Barone agrees with me in every state except Pennsylvania, which I give to Obama. Pethokoukis and Ertelt join Michael Barone and George Will in predicting a Romney victory.

So, there is no doubt that Romney will win, but get out there and vote anyway if you are in a swing state like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada or Colorado.

Pew Research poll oversamples Democrats by 6%, CNN poll oversamples Democrats by 11%

DaTechGuy explains:

The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

He goes through the poll sampling and finds 4 problems. Here are the first 3:

#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.

#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points.

#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.

Meanwhile, a CNN poll from today showing a tie oversamples Dems by 11%, and shows Romney winning independents 59% to 37%.


CNN’s last national poll before Judgment Day shows the race tied at 49, with a D+11 partisan sample.  This assumes Democrats will improve upon their extraordinary 2008 turnout by four percentage points.  There’s a word for this.  It’s “ludicrous.”  CNN’s previous national poll gave Obama a three-point lead, so it suggests the GOP nominee is gaining steam.  In light of the mind-blowing sample, how is the race even close, let alone tied?

(1) Independent voters are siding with Romney by 22 points, 59/37.

(2) Romney leads by nine on the economy — which is the top issue for voters, followed closely by the deficit, another Romney strong suit.

(3) Romney matches Obama on favorability and leadership qualities.

So there’s that.  In case you’re curious, the poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, so any potential Sandy “bump” for Obama should be reflected in the numbers.

The most reputable poll in 2008 was Rasmussen Reports. Their latest national poll is showing Romney with a +1 lead.

Check my previous post about why I think this election will result in a strong Romney/Ryan victory.

George Will and Michael Barone predict landslide victory for Romney/Ryan

First, George Will: (Headline: George Will predicts 321-217 Romney landslide)

Add Washington Post George Will to the landslide column along with Fox News Channel’s Dick Morris and the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone.

On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.

“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”

Second, Michael Barone:

[M]ost voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

[…]Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

[…]Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

Barone’s article breaks it down by state, which is good reading. He gives Romney Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Both Barone and Will are moderates who are not known for making wild speculative predictions.

I do think that if you are in a swing state like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada or Colorado that you should definitely get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan. The latest poll in Pennsylvania shows a tie (Obama won that by 11 points in 2008). The latest poll in Michigan shows Romney ahead by 1 point (Obama won that by 16 points in 2008).

At this point, I am reiterating my 52-47 popular vote prediction for Romney. My electoral college prediction is 295-243 for Romney (similar to Barone’s but Obama wins Pennsylvania (20)).

The more of a landslide this is, the more of a mandate that Ryan will have for his economic plan. I want to get back to the place where I don’t have to worry about my job and my portfolio as soon as possible. Please get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan, and tell everyone you know to do the same. I am sick and tired of this feeling of doom that has been hanging over me and my aspirations for my life over the last four years.

UPDATE: Jimmy Pethokoukis says 301-237.