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Prime Minister Stephen Harper polling in majority territory in Canada

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It’s a Parliamentary system, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s currently has a minority government.

But check out the latest poll results from Dr. Roy:

w-fed-vote-graph-cbc

(Click to see enlarged image from CBC)

About the Ekos poll, courtesy of the National Post:

The polling firm this morning reported that the Tories have 40.7% support among Canadians, pushing the party past the symbolic 40% mark and into majority government territory if an election was held now (which it won’t be). The Liberals trail with 25.5% support, with the NDP a distant third at 14.3%. Ekos says the Conservatives are “comprehensively ahead.”

The results put the Conservatives up a full percentage point over the polling firm’s results last week, while the Liberals, NDP and Bloc are slightly down. (Interestingly, the Greens are slightly up, with 10.5% support; they were at 9.7% last week.)

“The Liberals are under siege everywhere they turn,” Frank Graves, president of EKOS, said in a statement. “Even new Canadians, under- 25 Canadians, and the university-educated appear to be turning against them. Most stunning of all, the Conservatives now have a lead among women of almost 11 percentage points.”

The telephone survey was conducted between Oct. 7 and Oct. 13, 2009, for CBC. It included 2,729 Canadians and is considered accurate within 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The PDF of the poll is here.

There are a total of 308 seats, and Harper needs 155 to have a majority. The projection from this poll that the Conservatives would get more than 155 seats, and get their majority, if the election were held today. Anything better than 40% usually means a majority.

To compare, here are the results from the last federal election, held on October 14, 2008:

  • The Grown-Ups (Conservatives) got 37.7%
  • The Socialists (Liberals) got 26.3%
  • The English Communists (New Democrats) got 18.8%
  • The Green Communists (Greens) got 6.8%
  • The French Communists (Bloc Quebecois) got 10.0%

Here’s a map that show who voted for whom:

706px-Canada_2008_Federal_Election.svg

A “minority” government means that you need the support from another party to get over the 155 barrier so that you can pass a piece of legislation.

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Germany leans to the right as Angela Merkel sweeps election

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Story from the Globe and Mail. (H/T Andrew)

Excerpt:

The collapse of Europe’s left-leaning political consensus continued Sunday night as Germany’s Social Democrats ended 11 years in coalition governments with a crushing defeat at the hands of a conservative coalition that re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The vote makes Ms. Merkel the latest in a succession of conservative leaders to win strong support in formerly centre-left countries. Her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) have governed Germany since 2005 in an awkward power-sharing coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD).

But last night’s vote allows her to form a broadly right-wing government with the libertarian Free Democrats (FDP), who campaigned on a tax-cutting platform.

[…]The risk is palpable. Similar centre-left parties in Italy and France have been driven to near-extinction by conservative votes in recent years, and European parliament elections this year saw nearly every country support a majority of centre-right candidates.

As if to drive the point home, last night also saw Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, a stalwart of the moderate left, lose his parliamentary majority in a humiliating vote.

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are hawks on foreign policy. But what about Obama? Does he understand the dangerous world we live in, or is his mind still stuck in the ivory tower?

The Washington Times reports: (H/T Hot Air)

The military general credited for capturing Saddam Hussein and killing the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq says he has only spoken to President Obama once since taking command of Afghanistan.

“I’ve talked to the president, since I’ve been here, once on a VTC ,” General Stanley McChrystal told CBS reporter David Martin in a television interview that aired Sunday.

“You’ve talked to him once in 70 days?” Mr. Martin followed up.

“That is correct,” the general replied.

Maybe he should spend less time meeting with dictators, and more time with his own generals?

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India reacts to the death of Christian politician Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy

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map-of-india

Recently, the popular Chief Minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh died in a helicopter crash.What was not widely known before his death was that Reddy was a Christian! One of a small 3% minority of Christians in India, which is dominated by the Hindu religion. Let’s see whether his Christian faith made any difference in the way he was perceived by others.

Here is an article from the Hindustan Times about the reaction of the people.

Excerpt:

Andhra Pradesh plunged into gloom Thursday as it became known that Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy had died in a helicopter crash in the dense Nallamalla forests.

People cried inconsolably in the state secretariat, the chief minister’s camp office and Gandhi Bhavan, the headquarters of the ruling Congress party.

“He is my God. I can’t believe he is no more,” wailed a Congress party worker.

“He gave life to several people through Rajiv Arogyasri (health insurance scheme for poor). Nobody had imagined he will lose his life this way,” said another Congress worker.

The Times of India reports that Reddy’s Congress party swept the local elections in Andhra Pradesh.

Excerpt:

Riding on the sympathy wave following the death of former chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, ruling Congress in Andhra Pradesh made a sweep of the byelections to local bodies.

Of the 18 Zilla Parishad Territorial Constituencies that went to polls two days ago, 15 fell in Congress kitty.

[…]The same was the case with the Mandal Parishad Territorial Constituencies where Congress clinched 12 out of 17 that went to by-elections.

[…]In municipal corporations, [Congress] won four out of five wards…

The Hindustan Times reports that a movie is in the works.

Excerpt:

After statues and temples immortalising late Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, the popular leader who died in a helicopter crash early this month will come alive on the silver screen.

Telugu actor Rajasekhar will play the role of YSR, as the late leader was popularly known. Producer-director Puri Jagannath announced Monday evening that he would make the Telugu film titled Rajasekhara Reddy.

Flanked by actor couple Rajasekhar and Jeevitha, Jagannath said he was feeling honoured to make a movie on the towering leader, who enjoyed unbelievable popularity among masses.

“YSR was immensely popular. A large number of his fans died of shock or committed suicide after hearing about his death in the helicopter crash,” he said.

Last and best of all, here is an op-ed in the Deccan Chronicle sent to me by Shalini.

Excerpt:

This brings me to the role of religious minorities in India…

Christians form around 3 per cent of the population of India. There are not many very big Christian landowners or Christian industrial houses… Nevertheless, the community enjoys 100 per cent literacy and has done more for education and medical services of our country than others put together. I would hazard a guess that crime rates including corruption among Christians are probably the lowest.

By contrast, Sikhs who are the richest minority, forming around 2 per cent of the population, have 30 per cent illiteracy, high rate of crimes of violence, and probably the highest incidence of liquor and drug addiction. Worst of all is the plight of the largest minority, the Muslims who form about 13 per cent of our population. Although they have a few multi-billionaires … their literacy rates are the lowest, particularly among women… Instead of getting on with things that matter like education and health-care, their leaders waste most of their time asserting their separateness.

I regard Rajasekhar Reddy as the best example of what a state Chief Minister should be and the Christian contribution to India’s welfare as something other communities should emulate.

Meanwhile, in the West, we have the ACLU trying to suppress the public expression of the very faith that rationally grounds good works. You cannot have the good works of Christianity without the Christian beliefs. How hard is this for atheists to understand? On the atheistic view, survival of the fittest and the pursuit of pleasure in the here and now is rationally grounded. Self-sacrificial love for your neighbor is irrational on atheism.

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