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Pew Research poll oversamples Democrats by 6%, CNN poll oversamples Democrats by 11%

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DaTechGuy explains:

The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

He goes through the poll sampling and finds 4 problems. Here are the first 3:

#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.

#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points.

#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.

Meanwhile, a CNN poll from today showing a tie oversamples Dems by 11%, and shows Romney winning independents 59% to 37%.

Excerpt:

CNN’s last national poll before Judgment Day shows the race tied at 49, with a D+11 partisan sample.  This assumes Democrats will improve upon their extraordinary 2008 turnout by four percentage points.  There’s a word for this.  It’s “ludicrous.”  CNN’s previous national poll gave Obama a three-point lead, so it suggests the GOP nominee is gaining steam.  In light of the mind-blowing sample, how is the race even close, let alone tied?

(1) Independent voters are siding with Romney by 22 points, 59/37.

(2) Romney leads by nine on the economy — which is the top issue for voters, followed closely by the deficit, another Romney strong suit.

(3) Romney matches Obama on favorability and leadership qualities.

So there’s that.  In case you’re curious, the poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, so any potential Sandy “bump” for Obama should be reflected in the numbers.

The most reputable poll in 2008 was Rasmussen Reports. Their latest national poll is showing Romney with a +1 lead.

Check my previous post about why I think this election will result in a strong Romney/Ryan victory.

News

An overlooked issue in the 2012 election: conscience rights

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I found this post on Well Spent Journey. The author is a future physician.

He writes:

This issue is sometimes overlooked, but it goes hand-in-hand with abortion. As a future physician, it affects me personally.

[…]Only a month after taking office, President Obama announced that he would be rescinding HHS regulations protecting the conscience rights of healthcare workers:

“[Specific publicly-funded entities may not] discriminate in the employment, promotion, or termination of employment of any physician or other health care personnel because he performed or assisted in the performance of a lawful sterilization procedure or abortion, because he refused to perform or assist in the performance of such a procedure or abortion on the grounds that his performance or assistance in the performance of the procedure or abortion would be contrary to his religious beliefs or moral convictions, or because of his religious beliefs or moral convictions respecting sterilization procedures or abortions…” 

In April 2009, these rules were officially eliminated. Then, in 2011, the administration approved the now-infamous HHS contraception mandate, requiring employer-provided insurance plans to cover birth control and early-term abortion drugs…regardless of the provider’s religious objections. (As an aside, I highly recommend R.J. Snell’s article,“The Contraception Mandate and Secular Discourse”.)

Other recent attacks have centered around the Weldon Amendment (2004), which prohibits federally funded agencies from discriminating against health care providers who refuse to provide, pay for, provide coverage for, or refer for abortions.

Additionally, a 2009 online survey of 2,865 faith-based healthcare professionals found that:

  • 39% of faith-based healthcare professionals have “experienced pressure from or discrimination by faculty or administrators based on [their] moral, ethical, or religious beliefs.”
  • 20% of faith-based medical students say they are “not pursuing a career in Obstetrics or Gynecology” because of perceived discrimination and coercion in that field.
  • 12% of faith-based healthcare professionals have “been pressured to perform a procedure to which [they] had moral, ethical, or religious objections.”
  • 91% of faith-based physicians agreed with the statement, “I would rather stop practicing medicine altogether than be forced to violate my conscience.”

So aside from the clear injustice of legalized abortion, my interest in this election is based on a desire to learn and practice medicine without being pressured to violate my moral convictions. Not to belittle the importance of other social, economic, and foreign policy issues, but these will be my overriding concerns in the ballot box.

Religious liberty is one the things that I care about the most, and I’m particularly concerned about Obama’s attacks on conscience rights for medical professionals. He’s shown that he has no respect for Christians with his HHS mandate. If he gets re-elected he will no reason to spare us worse things.

I found this post from Well Spent Journey on J.W. Wartick’s round-up of pre-election posts for Christian voters. Lots of great stuff in that round-up.

News

General Tommy Franks and 500 other military officers endorse Mitt Romney

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In a full page ad in the Washington Times.

PJ Media reports:

A star-studded list of retired high ranking US military officers is set to shake up the presidential race as the nation heads into Election Day, November 6. GEN Hugh Shelton (USA-ret) and GEN Tommy Franks (USA-ret) are among the military heavyweights who are taking out a full page ad in Monday’s Washington Times, the Tatler has learned.

GEN Franks is probably best known as the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) from 2000 to 2003, during the war that ended the reign of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. He was appointed to head up the Middle East-centric command by President Bill Clinton and assumed command of CENTCOM on July 6, 2000. Franks served in the United States Army from 1967 to his retirement in 2003.

GEN Henry Shelton served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President Clinton from October 1, 1997 to October 1, 2001. Shelton’s military honors include the Purple Heart and the Bronze Star with valor device and three oak leaf cluster. He also commanded the United States Special Operations Command.

The full-page ad says “We, the undersigned, proudly support Governor Mitt Romney as our next President and Commander-in-Chief.” A note at the bottom of the ad says that the officers all paid for the ad themselves. The list includes officers who served in the United States Army, the United States Navy, the United States Marine Corps, and the United States Air Force.

Besides Franks and Shelton, many of the names on the list, which had been making the rounds on the Internet, will be familiar as respected leaders of the US military, in all capacities. They include LTG Thomas McInerney (USA-ret), retired Air Force Chief of Staff Gen Ronald Fogleman, retired Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Frank Kelso, and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen Richard B. Meyers (USAF-ret).

Click here to see the full page ad.