All posts by Wintery Knight

https://winteryknight.com/

Does abortion reduce violent crime? Does abortion reduce child abuse?

If abortion reduces crime, why does the evidence show that it doesn't?
If abortion reduces crime, why does the evidence show that it doesn’t?

Grr, my annoying co-workers are at it again this morning. This time, it’s the man who annoyed me about overpopulation fears, which I responded to earlier this week. He says to me this morning that Alabama is going to have a big problem with violent crime because they’ve stopped abortions. These sorts of views are common among TV-watchers, but not among those study-readers.

Life Site News reports on a Yale Law & Economics Research Paper.

First, let’s see the abstract:

Abortion may prevent the birth of “unwanted” children, who would have relatively small investments in human capital and a higher probability of crime. On the other hand, some research suggests that legalizing abortion increases out-of-wedlock births and single parent families, which implies the opposite impact on investments in human capital and thus crime. The question is: what is the net impact? We find evidence that legalizing abortion increased murder rates by around about 0.5 to 7 percent. Previous estimates are shown to suffer from not directly linking the cohorts who are committing crime with whether they had been born before or after abortion was legal.

And now, let’s see the Life Site News article:

Law professors John R. Lott, Jr. of Yale Law School and John E. Whitley of the University of Adelaide found that legalizing abortion increased murder rates by up to seven percent. They concluded that legalizing abortion is a contributing factor to the great increase in out‑of‑wedlock births and single parent families, which in turn contribute to increased crime rates. Since 1970, the percentage of single‑parent households in the United States has nearly tripled, from 11 percent to 32 percent, and the percentage of out‑of‑wedlock births has nearly quadrupled, from 11 percent to 43 percent of all children.7 Children born out-of-wedlock and raised by only one parent have a significantly higher incidence of crime.

There are many other fundamental problems with the conclusion that legalized abortion leads to a decrease in crime.

Statistician David Murray confirmed that young males between the ages of 17 and 25 commit the majority of crimes. However, if abortion had reduced crime, the crime rates in the United States would have dropped first among young people. They did not. Instead, the number of crimes committed by older people dropped first. Nearly 60% of the decline in murder since 1990 involved killers aged 25 and older — who were born before Roe v. Wade.8

Murray also found that other nations with high abortion rates showed a large increase in crime about eighteen years after they legalized abortion. For example, in Great Britain, which legalized abortion in 1968, violent crime has been rising steeply since about 1985 ― exactly when it should have been declining, according to the Donohue‑Levitt thesis. Additionally, Russia, with the highest abortion rate on earth, has experienced a tidal wave of every kind of violent crime following the breakup of the Soviet Union.9

FBI statistics showed that the murder rate in 1993 for 14‑ to 17‑year‑olds in the USA (born in the years 1975‑1979, which had very high abortion rates) was 3.6 times higher than that of kids who were the same age in 1984 (who were born in the pre‑legalization years of 1966‑1970). Additionally, since Black women were having abortions at a much higher rate than White women, we should have expected the murder rate among Black youth to have declined beginning in about 1991. Instead, it increased more than five hundred percent from 1984 to 1993.10

Finally, the huge increase in violent crime that peaked in 1991 and then began to decline is more closely related to the crack epidemic, not abortion. The Donohue‑Levitt study confirms that the crime rate rose and fell exactly where crack cocaine was most easily available ― in the large cities and among young Black males.11 This is also confirmed by the rise in crime during the time period 1984 to 1991, after a decline from 1980 to 1984. If abortion were the primary cause of a decline in violent crime, the crime rate would have been relatively stable during the time period 1980 to 1991.

By the way, a good book to buy on this is John Lott’s “Freedomnomics: Why the Free Market Works and Other Half-Baked Theories Don’t“. One third of the book covers this topic.

And if you’re wondering what caused the decline in violent crime rates in the 1990s, the answer to that is that it was multiple factors. Better policing, mandatory sentencing laws, legalized concealed carry laws, and other factors were responsible.

Abortion and child abuse

Sometimes, pro-abortion people put forward a similar argument about abortion preventing child abuse. This argument seems intuitive, but from an evidence point of view, it’s false.

Here’s a report from Life News about a study out of Bowling Green State University.

Excerpt:

For decades, evidence has existed showing abortion contributes to a rise in child abuse. Now a new study by a post-abortion research institute and Bowling Green State University professors finds that women who have abortions are more likely to abuse their children.

Published in the medical journal Acta Paediatrica, the study found that women who have had abortions are 2.4 times more likely to physically abuse their children. Pro-life advocates say it proves the need for providing women with post-abortion counseling to help deal with the emotional trauma of the abortion.

[…]The authors suggested that “emotional difficulties and unresolved grief responses” from pregnancy loss, whether voluntary or involuntary, could have a negative impact on women’s mental health and lead to unhealthy parenting responses.

According to the Illinois-based Elliot Institute, which released information about the study’s findings, prior surveys “have linked pregnancy loss to an increase in grief reactions, anxiety, depression, sleep disturbances, and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, all of which can have a negative impact on parent/child relationships.”

The post-abortion research group also points to a 2002 study published in the Journal of Child Psychiatry and Psychology that found abortion has been linked to an increase in substance abuse and thoughts of suicide, which could also contribute to child abuse.

The new study also found that women who had more than one miscarriage or stillbirth were more likely to engage in child abuse than women who had just one. However, women who had abortions were more likely to abuse their children whether they had one or more than one abortion.

“Regardless of the specific mechanisms at play, maternal history of one induced abortion does appear to be a marker for increased risk of physical abuse,” the authors concluded.

Whenever I read about how studies contradict people’s intuitions about what will and will not work, it makes me sad that so many people who live life on intuitions and feelings are still allowed to vote. If only we had a society where reason and evidence were seen as indispensable for building up your view of the world.

By the way, if you’re looking for a good article for debating other aspects of the Alabama pro-life law, my friend William, who loves to debate everything, and he always wins, just posted this article about 9 myths about the Alabama pro-life law.

General advice on countering your co-workers

I found that if I passed on TV and movies, I could buy pretty much any book I wanted that has research-based responses to these common questions from secular leftists. All it takes is a commitment to dedicate your book-buying budget to the task of responding to challenges, instead of producing feelings.

I notice a lot of Christian women in my office reading fiction books, while the Christian men are always talking about TV and movies. Fiction and entertainment are useless for putting forward Bible-based views and supporting evidence in controversial discussions. Instead of wasting your money on fiction and entertainment, listen closely to what people in your office are saying, and then purchase and train with resources that help you to serve God in these discussions. Bible verses and prayers alone will not equip you to serve in difficult situations.

What does the Biden administration have to offer Christians and conservatives?

Just a few news stories to show you what you get in a Biden presidency.

First, there’s abortion.

The Federalist reports:

More than 20 groups have banded together to submit comments opposing the Biden administration’s proposed rule mandating taxpayer-funded abortions.

Historically, Title X is devoted to family planning and providing preventative birth control methods to low-income families. Abortion has largely been excluded by Congress to avoid having taxpayers fund the killing of babies in the womb. Under the Trump administration, Planned Parenthood and other abortion organizations even opted out of receiving federal funding to avoid the separation finalized in 2019 between Title X services and abortion.

Under the “Ensuring Access to Equitable, Affordable, Client-Centered, Quality Family Planning Services” proposal, however, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services would remove the financial and physical separation in funding between Title X activities and abortion activities, circumvent statutes and laws to discourage parental and familial involvement in abortion decisions, and remove certain reporting and regulatory stipulations. The rule would also require providers to give abortion counseling and referrals, even if their objections are protected under the Weldon Amendment and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

And what about in the schools? Are we going to get schools that teach children truth and practicality.

The Federalist reports:

Just weeks after the U.S. Department of Education supported by President Joe Biden introduced a proposed rule that uses the anti-American 1619 Project and hatemonger Ibram X. Kendi to guide its federal grant criteria for American history and civics education, opposition to the racist indoctrination curriculum is growing.

In addition to alleging that the United States is filled with “systemic racism” that can only be cured by “anti-racist” training that singles out white people as problems, the proposed curriculum would use taxpayer funds to push a muddled version of American history that hides behind promotions of “diversity, identities, histories, contributions, and experiences of all students.”

Parents and teachers in schools around the nation are facing off with progressives dead set on implementing critical race theory in schools, but Biden’s federal involvement adds a whole new layer of issues for some organizations and states that would be eligible for the education grants.

What about the military? Are we getting quality armed forces to keep the peace and deter aggression?

The Federalist reports:

The U.S Army announced it will begin prioritizing climate change considerations as part of its ongoing strategic operations and threat analysis, according to a newly released memo.

Titled, “US Army: Addressing Climate Change Threats”, the document classifies climate change as a “serious threat to U.S. National security interests and defense objectives,” while also detailing how the military agency intends to play a more active role in responding to climate-related issues moving forward.

Oh, this too:

A U.S. Space Force special unit commander was fired from his post last week after he discussed the infiltration of Marxist ideology into the U.S. military on a podcast, Military.com reported on Saturday.

Lt Col. Matthew Lohmeier, a commander of 11th Space Warning Squadron at Buckley Air Force Base, Colorado was released on Friday by the head of Space Operations Command Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, “over a loss of confidence in his ability to lead.”

I’m looking at this, and I’m having real trouble understanding which specific policies conservatives and Christians who supported Biden wanted. Did they think the world would be safer? Did they think that their children would learn more and earn more? Did they think that government would be more efficient?

Democrats are guided by their feelings. Their policies are based on trying to get the most irresponsible and reckless people to like them. They can’t make moral judgments, and they override truth with comfortable lies. Why would anyone vote for that?

New University of Chicago study evaluates the lockdown policies of the secular left

Should we have trusted secular leftists to tell us how to live during the crisis of the last year? It’s been difficult to assess because all the elites say the same thing: trust the secular left to discover the truth and tell you the truth about how to live. But can you really trust people who put politically correct dogma over facts, if those facts suggest that liberty and personal responsibility are best?

Here’s the latest  news about a new study, reported on by The Federalist:

A new study from Chicago University economist Casey Mulligan validates what the anti-lockdowners knew all along: Lockdowns are a bad idea. After workplaces implemented mitigation measures, they became far safer environments than people’s homes.

“Available data from schools, hospitals, nursing homes, food processing plants, hair stylists, and airlines show employers adopting mitigation protocols in the spring of 2020,” Mulligan wrote in the study. Such mitigation protocols included masking, reasonable social distancing, screening, and improving airflow — steps people wouldn’t take in their own homes. “Coincident with the adoption, infection rates in workplaces typically dropped from well above household rates to well below.”

One example Mulligan included was the Duke Health system. After Duke’s hospitals and clinics implemented strategies to mitigate C***D spread, “an hour worked in the Duke Health system went from being more dangerous than an hour outside work to being more than three times safer.”

[…]“[W]orkers have been 4-5 times less safe outside their workplace than inside it,” said a press release for the study, in a direct rebuke to lockdowns. “While stay-at-home continues to be pushed as promoting public health, nobody is checking the data which say the opposite.”

The lockdowns were not a neutral or benign policy for many Americans. Over 100,000 small businesses closed because they could not work from home, and customers were locked down in their homes. My two favorite restaurants shut down, where I live, and we are not even one of the crazy lock down states. Shutting down small businesses is wonderful for communists, who know that an economy is easier to control if there are only a few monopolies. When consumers have many options in a free market, it’s much harder for the secular left to rule.

But there are other ways that the lock down strategy hurt Americans. In addition to small business closings and job losses, children lost an entire year of school. Normal health care operations shut down, delaying treatment of real sicknesses like cancer and heart disease. Check-ups and preventive care measures were delayed or canceled. People who were scheduled for operations became inoperable. The elderly were locked down in nursing homes and they died there. And the obese were not warned that their obesity put them at higher risk – so they could do something about it. And we’ve spiked inflation by handing out so much money for unemployment and more government spending. “Never let a crisis go to waste”, was the Democrats’ motto.

The Federalist notes:

For instance, while the media lauded Gov. Andrew Cuomo as a pandemic hero while he locked down New York and ordered C***D patients to be housed in nursing homes alongside the pandemic’s most vulnerable, the same media excoriated leading scientists such as Dr. Sunetra Gupta, who opposed anti-science lockdowns while advocating for special measures to protect the elderly.

And:

A study released last month of the effects of lockdowns in 10 countries was damning. Not only did researchers find that “mandatory stay-at-home and business closures” resulted in “no clear, significant beneficial effect … on case growth in any country,” but in some cases, lockdowns were actually “pro-contagion.”

The media hid the facts from us, so we couldn’t make out own decisions, and often got bullied by “experts”.

National Post reported:

The majority of global C***D-19 deaths have been in countries where many people are obese, with coronavirus fatality rates 10 times higher in nations where at least 50% of adults are overweight, a global study found on Thursday.

The report, which described a “dramatic” correlation between countries’ C***D-19 death and obesity rates, found that 90% or 2.2 million of the 2.5 million deaths from the pandemic disease so far were in countries with high levels of obesity.

The study analyzed the C***D-19 death figures from Johns Hopkins University in the United States and the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory data on obesity.

Strikingly, the authors said, there is no example of a country where people are generally not overweight or obese having high C***D-19 death rates.

Why couldn’t the media talk about this? Because their masters in the Democrat party have huge voting blocs who are committed to obesity as a way of life. The secular left would rather not “judge” than tell the truth. Better to just treat everyone the same, instead of opening up the economy and trusting at-risk populations to make decisions to keep themselves safe.

One problem we have in this culture is that we think that a person can just deny the existence of God, and objective morality, and still discover truth and give good advice to others. But people who deny the existence of God have not handled evidence like the origin of the universe and cosmic fine-tuning and the origin of life and the sudden origin of body plans accurately. They chose their worldview by feelings – not facts. And people who think that communism is is superior to the free market are the same – feelings over facts. Why think that people like that should be trusted to tell us how to live? What work have they done to discover how things REALLY work, as opposed to how they FEEL things should work? If they can’t be trusted to have done their homework on big things, like cosmology and economics, then why should we trust them about anything else?