Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

News

Recent polls by the mainstream skew sample towards Democrat voters

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Here’s an excellent analysis from Da Tech Guy.

Excerpt:

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004.

Here are the recent numbers:

Voter identification by party
Voter identification by party

It’s a 3-4 point advantage for Republicans.

Da Tech Guy continues:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

And here’s what the mainstream media have been doing with their polls:

Mainstream media oversampling Democrat voters
Mainstream media oversampling Democrat voters

Only the Rasmussen Reports poll is accurately sampling voters based on party identification.

That’s why Obama looks like he’s winning. He’s not.

Read the full analysis here.

UPDATE: CBS/NYT Poll Weights Registered Voters Dems 35%, Republicans 22%.

 

News

Democrats resort to busing in people to fill up DNC convention

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Romney vs. Obama: campaign fundraising
Romney vs. Obama: campaign fundraising

Fox News reports.

Excerpt:

College students from across North Carolina will arrive in Charlotte by the busload. Same with members of predominantly black churches in neighboring South Carolina.

Their goal: help fill a 74,000-seat outdoor stadium to capacity when President Obama accepts the Democratic nomination Thursday night.

[…]Democrats have been fretting for months over whether the president can draw a capacity crowd at Bank of America Stadium. Polls show voter enthusiasm is down, as are Obama’s crowds for his battleground state campaign rallies.

[…]Thursday’s event is certain to draw comparisons to 2008, when Obama accepted the Democratic nomination before a capacity crowd at an 84,000-seat stadium in Denver. There was little concern back then over whether Obama would fill the stadium, in part because he was easily attracting tens of thousands of people to his campaign rallies across the country.

This time around, Obama’s crowds are far smaller. He drew his biggest audience at his campaign kick-off rally in May, a 14,000-person crowd at Ohio State University. About 13,000 people attended Obama’s rally at the University of Colorado in Boulder Sunday.

Not surprising, given that Obama kicked-off his re-election campaign in a half-empty stadium. The only people who are going to vote for this guy are the people who are dependent on federal government welfare and spending.

And look, Obama is losing badly in the fundraising, too: (links removed)

Mitt Romney has extended his lead over President Obama in this election cycle’s race for campaign cash.

The Republican had almost $186 million in cash on hand at the end of July, compared to $124 million for Obama — figures that include donations made to the campaigns, party committees and joint fundraising efforts.

[…]In 2008, Obama shattered all previous fundraising records by bringing in an excess of $750 million — far more than John McCain.

But Romney has dashed any hopes Obama might have harbored for continued dominance in 2012. The past two months have been particularly fruitful for the Republican challenger, as Romney’s team produced a haul of more than $200 million in June and July.

Over the same time period, Obama’s campaign mustered a comparatively modest $147 million.

And the gap between the candidates may be widening. The Romney campaign has said its fundraising totals have increased in recent days after the addition of Rep. Paul Ryan to the ticket.

Republicans have an even bigger money advantage when spending by super PACs and other outside groups is included.

According to the latest data from the Center for Responsive Politics, outside conservative groups have spent $221.5 million this cycle, while liberal groups have spent $55.6 million.

Romney wasn’t my first, second, or third choice for the Republican nomination, but he sure knows how to raise money. We’ll see whether he is able to hold his own in debates with Obama. I think that given the choice between four years of disastrous economic failures and four years of flip-flops, America will take the flip-flops.

UPDATE: Looks like the busing in wasn’t enough: Obama is moving his speech from the 74,000 capacity venue to a 20,000 capacity venue. Well, that’s one way to get a packed house.

News

Republican platform adds resolution to audit the Federal Reserve

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From San Francisco Chronicle.

Excerpt:

 The Republican Party platform promises to replace what it criticizes as President Barack Obama’s debt-swollen entitlement society with “a roaring job market to match a roaring economy.”

The platform reflects the influence of presidential candidate Mitt Romney, offering as the remedy for the nation’s economic ills a familiar recipe of low taxes, light regulation, expanded oil drilling and free enterprise. It vows to reduce personal and corporate taxes, repeal Obama’s health-care law, promote small businesses and avoid taxpayer bailouts of troubled financial institutions.

The 62-page roadmap, approved by a voice vote of the delegates yesterday at the party’s national convention in Tampa, Florida, promotes expanded trade and accuses the Obama administration of “a virtual surrender” to commercial rival China. The Asian country is stealing American trade secrets, manipulating its currency to make its exports cheaper, and hampering U.S. firms trying to sell to Chinese customers, the Republicans say.

Republicans call for banks to be “well-capitalized” and pledge to repeal the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-regulation law.

Along with major economic policy shifts, the Republicans vow to transform the size and scope of government. Trillion- dollar annual budget deficits and mounting debt are harming job growth, they say. “The massive federal government is structurally and financially broken,” the platform says.

[…]Echoing a longtime demand of libertarian Representative Ron Paul of Texas, the platform calls for an annual audit of the Federal Reserve. And it proposes a commission to investigate “possible ways to set a fixed value for the dollar,” a reference to a potential revival of the gold standard.

The campaign document labels Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored mortgage financiers, as “a primary cause of the housing crisis because their implicit government guarantee allowed them to avoid market discipline and make risky investments.”

That view, though widely held among conservatives, has been rejected by the Federal Reserve and three of the four Republicans on the government commission that investigated the 2008 financial meltdown.

Note that both Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan support auditing the Federal Reserve.

Presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney called for increased transparency at the Federal Reserve Monday, voicing his strongest support yet for an audit of the country’s central banking system.

“The answer is yes to that, very plain and simple,” Romney responded, when asked by a supporter at a New Hampshire town hall whether it was time to audit the Fed. “The Federal Reserve should be accountable. We should see what they’re doing.”

The mark aligns Romney with a growing cadre of conservatives championing an audit of the Federal Reserve, a group led by Romney’s primary opponent Ron Paul and his acolytes. Earlier this month,Paul’s “Audit The Fed” bill passed the House of Representatives with overwhelming bipartisan support.

After taking a more measured stance on the issue during the Republican primaries, Romney has slowly moved to embrace a Federal Reserve audit as support for the issue grows with voters across the political spectrum. Romney’s new running mate, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, has been a vocal critic of the central banking system, and is listed as one of 268 co-sponsors of Paul’s bill. 

Romney has also said that he will not reappoint Ben Bernanke if he is elected. I think that Ron Paul supporters should be able to decide who to support in the general election based on this information.