UPDATE: She’s now up 39 to 37 according to a new poll.

Amazing story from the moderately left-wing Politico. (H/T The Other McCain)

Excerpt:

Add Rep. Raul Grijalva to the growing list of Democratic worries this election season.
Party operatives say there’s increasing concern that the Arizona Democrat’s reelection bid could turn into a “sleeper” race for Republicans after Grijalva — responding to enactment of a tough new immigration law — called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment.

Four Democratic sources from different parts of the country said that there is new attention to a race that was long considered in the bag.

And a recent poll, obtained by POLITICO, found that Grijalva and Republican challenger Ruth McClung, a real-life rocket scientist, were in a dead heat, even though Washington prognosticators have declared the deep-blue seat safely Democratic.

As they work to buttress their majority against a coming Republican storm, Democrats can ill afford to spend time or resources defending incumbents in seats where they should have a clear advantage. But the Grijalva seat potentially being in play is a sign of the increasingly expanding Republican playing field for the midterm elections. . . .

The bolding is from Robert Stacy McCain’s post.

McCain writes:

A couple weeks ago, when I first blogged about Ruth McClung’s campaign in AZ-7, it was basically as favor to an Arizona friend. Here was an excellent candidate running a g0od grassroots campaign and, as always, I love a scrappy underdog. Grijalva’s stupidity in calling for a boycott of his own state was so remarkable as to deserve another mention.

There was a chance for an against-the-odds upset but, honestly, I never expected to see a poll three weeks before Election Day showing a dead heat in AZ-7. Look at the data: Grijalva’s negatives are 47% against a positive of 39%, while Grijalva’s “deserves re-election” number is a mere 36% against 50% for “give new person a chance.” This is an incumbent in serious trouble.

To have these kind of results, when McClung reported a mere $16,000 cash on hand in early August — incredible!

Here’s her latest ad:

In related news, ECM sent me this Wall Street Journal article.

Excerpt:

Republican challengers are suddenly threatening once-safe Democrats in New England and the Northwest, expanding the terrain for potential GOP gains and raising the party’s hopes for a significant victory in next month’s elections.

Republican advances in traditionally Democratic states, including Connecticut, Oregon and Washington, may not translate into a wave of GOP victories. But they have rattled local campaigns and forced the Democrats to shift attention and money to races they didn’t expect to be defending.

[…]Democrats are buying advertising in places they hadn’t previously reserved it, a strong indication the battlefield is expanding. That includes New England, which hasn’t a single Republican House member. A new ad by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing this week in the Massachusetts district covering Cape Cod, where Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt is retiring and ex-police sergeant Jeff Perry is posting a strong GOP challenge.

In Connecticut, polls published this week show Democratic Reps. Chris Murphy and Jim Himes in dead heats with their GOP rivals. The non-partisan Cook Political Report on Friday moved Mr. Murphy’s race into a more competitive category, from a “likely” win to “lean” Democratic.

The November elections are looking very bad for the Democrats.