During the GOP primary, I wrote a lot about Ron DeSantis’ many policy wins. He won re-election in Florida by 20%, winning over many moderates and independents to his ultra-conservative platform. But, voters chose Trump as the GOP nominee. This was in spite of polls showing Trump losing many supporters in the (likely) event that he was convicted of felonies. And that’s now happened.
First, I wrote about Trump’s 4 trials and 91 felony charges, after the Iowa caucus results, when voters in Iowa voted for Trump above DeSantis.
I wrote this:
I watched Iowa voting results last night. It was disappointing. I wondered, “do Trump voters know that he is facing 4 criminal investigations, with 91 separate indictments?” So, I asked my Dad, who is very old and retired, and watches Fox News all day and all night. And he said “Yes, but they are all politically motivated, and they will all be dismissed”. So, let’s take a look.
And I went over all the trials and charges. Then I wrote this:
Now it’s time to ask one of my favorite questions to Trump supporters: What did you hope to achieve in the long-term by doing what felt good to you in the short-term? I would really like an answer from Trump supporters. What is the evidence that Trump will not get convicted of at least some of these charges, and then lose tons of votes in the general election, especially the trials taking place in blue states, with blue state juries? What is the evidence that a felony conviction will not cause Republicans to lose the general election in November?
By the way, I did call my Fox-News-Watching Dad and asked him whether he was surprised by the news of Thursday, and he said it was all so unexpected. That’s despite me telling him that this was guaranteed to happen, and that Trump would be in a prison cell in the months leading up to election day (and after). But he’s a Trump supporter, and the Fox News told him it would never happen.
Let’s take a look at recent polls about Trump’s felony convictions, and see whether he’s going to lose any votes over these felony convictions that are now happening exactly as DeSantis supporters had predicted they would.
This is from Fox News, which strongly backed Donald Trump against Ron DeSantis:
Would a Trump guilty verdict dramatically alter the current state of play in the presidential showdown?
Recent national polling points to a very small — but potentially decisive — drop in support for Trump if he’s convicted in court.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters questioned in a Quinnipiac University survey said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote for president. Fifteen percent said it would make them more likely to cast a ballot for Trump and 21% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.
Additionally, eight out of 10 Trump supporters surveyed in an ABC News/Ipsos poll said they would still back the presumptive GOP presidential nominee if he was found guilty in court. Sixteen percent said they would reconsider their support and 4% said they would no longer back Trump.
Additionally, a Reuters-Ipsos poll indicated a two-point shift away from Trump if the former president is convicted, with a bigger six-point shift if Trump is put behind bars.
The future is hard to predict. The polls I was seeing previously predicted a 10% shift away from Trump to Biden, if Trump was convicted of a felony. That’s why I urged people to vote for DeSantis, and persuade others to vote for DeSantis.
I have no doubt Trump’s 34 felony convictions, each with a max sentence of 4 years in prison, will make Trump supporters even more likely to vote for Trump. But even if they are angry enough to vote twice for Trump, they only get one vote. And I doubt that Trump supporters will be able to convince moderates and independents to support a convicted felon with their rage alone.
Trump is not the candidate who turned a 0.5% win in 2018 into a 20% win in 2022. In a purple state. That would be Ron DeSantis. It’s too bad we didn’t vote for someone who was great on policy, and great at winning over moderates and independents. Trump has zero appeal to moderates and independents. If we wanted to win in November, we would have chosen Ron DeSantis.
I would say that right now, the only way for Republicans to win in November is to dump Trump, and let DeSantis be the candidate. The problem is that Trump is focused on himself. He’s always been more concerned about himself. He doesn’t support conservative candidates, he supports candidates who kiss his ring. This is not the person who is going to bow out in order to help Republicans win. Maybe when he loses, his supporters will understand (during the next 4 years of socialist tyranny), that it is important to vote with your mind, and not with your feelings. Maybe if we start to choose candidates based on policies and persuading independents, then we win the next election in 2028.