During the GOP primary, I wrote a lot about Ron DeSantis’ many policy wins. He won re-election in Florida by 20%, winning over many moderates and independents to his ultra-conservative platform. But, voters chose Trump as the GOP nominee. This was in spite of polls showing Trump losing many supporters in the (likely) event that he was convicted of felonies. And that’s now happened.
First, I wrote about Trump’s 4 trials and 91 felony charges, after the Iowa caucus results, when voters in Iowa voted for Trump above DeSantis.
I wrote this:
I watched Iowa voting results last night. It was disappointing. I wondered, “do Trump voters know that he is facing 4 criminal investigations, with 91 separate indictments?” So, I asked my Dad, who is very old and retired, and watches Fox News all day and all night. And he said “Yes, but they are all politically motivated, and they will all be dismissed”. So, let’s take a look.
And I went over all the trials and charges. Then I wrote this:
Now it’s time to ask one of my favorite questions to Trump supporters: What did you hope to achieve in the long-term by doing what felt good to you in the short-term? I would really like an answer from Trump supporters. What is the evidence that Trump will not get convicted of at least some of these charges, and then lose tons of votes in the general election, especially the trials taking place in blue states, with blue state juries? What is the evidence that a felony conviction will not cause Republicans to lose the general election in November?
By the way, I did call my Fox-News-Watching Dad and asked him whether he was surprised by the news of Thursday, and he said it was all so unexpected. That’s despite me telling him that this was guaranteed to happen, and that Trump would be in a prison cell in the months leading up to election day (and after). But he’s a Trump supporter, and the Fox News told him it would never happen.
Let’s take a look at recent polls about Trump’s felony convictions, and see whether he’s going to lose any votes over these felony convictions that are now happening exactly as DeSantis supporters had predicted they would.
This is from Fox News, which strongly backed Donald Trump against Ron DeSantis:
Would a Trump guilty verdict dramatically alter the current state of play in the presidential showdown?
Recent national polling points to a very small — but potentially decisive — drop in support for Trump if he’s convicted in court.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters questioned in a Quinnipiac University survey said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote for president. Fifteen percent said it would make them more likely to cast a ballot for Trump and 21% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.
Additionally, eight out of 10 Trump supporters surveyed in an ABC News/Ipsos poll said they would still back the presumptive GOP presidential nominee if he was found guilty in court. Sixteen percent said they would reconsider their support and 4% said they would no longer back Trump.
Additionally, a Reuters-Ipsos poll indicated a two-point shift away from Trump if the former president is convicted, with a bigger six-point shift if Trump is put behind bars.
The future is hard to predict. The polls I was seeing previously predicted a 10% shift away from Trump to Biden, if Trump was convicted of a felony. That’s why I urged people to vote for DeSantis, and persuade others to vote for DeSantis.
I have no doubt Trump’s 34 felony convictions, each with a max sentence of 4 years in prison, will make Trump supporters even more likely to vote for Trump. But even if they are angry enough to vote twice for Trump, they only get one vote. And I doubt that Trump supporters will be able to convince moderates and independents to support a convicted felon with their rage alone.
Trump is not the candidate who turned a 0.5% win in 2018 into a 20% win in 2022. In a purple state. That would be Ron DeSantis. It’s too bad we didn’t vote for someone who was great on policy, and great at winning over moderates and independents. Trump has zero appeal to moderates and independents. If we wanted to win in November, we would have chosen Ron DeSantis.
I would say that right now, the only way for Republicans to win in November is to dump Trump, and let DeSantis be the candidate. The problem is that Trump is focused on himself. He’s always been more concerned about himself. He doesn’t support conservative candidates, he supports candidates who kiss his ring. This is not the person who is going to bow out in order to help Republicans win. Maybe when he loses, his supporters will understand (during the next 4 years of socialist tyranny), that it is important to vote with your mind, and not with your feelings. Maybe if we start to choose candidates based on policies and persuading independents, then we win the next election in 2028.
WINTERY KNIGHT 
I completely agree that De Santis would be the better candidate this fall. I also think that the GOP (less the Trump diehards) would gain credibility by making the move away from Trump. It seems likely that the Trump diehards would cost De Santis the election by sitting out.
I think it’s likely that Trump’s conviction is overturned on appeal, but that it’s unlikely to happen fast enough to make a difference.
It’s almost like those on the Trump train are willing to give us another 4 years of Biden, rather than admit they could possibly be wrong.
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Credibility with who? They already smeared de Santis with accusations about underage girls. They already think anyone who isn’t on board with them is a Nazi, “middle of the road” types at this point are borderline too stupid to help after the left has gone all in on legalizing crime and the trans madness.
They sic’ed the FBI on pro lifers and there are J6ers who still are in jail without trial. We are close, if not already, all in here.
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I think that there are some voters who would see the GOP moving on from Trump as a sign of credibility. How many is unknown, as is whether or not they would offset the Trump diehards.
Practically I agree with you that it’s unlikely to be worth the change, but I’m idealistic enough to hope that doing the right thing still counts with some.
I agree that the left’s goal is to remove permanently any conservative influence or role in government and that we need to fight that with any weapon available.
My concern is that sticking with Trump might also put Biden back in office.
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How would voters even “see” it? The problem is you keep thinking there is some kind of reality that the voters can grasp when what is ACTUALLY happening is the voters see what the media wants them to see. So think less “a sign of credibility” and more “worst possible interpretation that can be put on it.” Like…. “voters move from convicted felon Trump to fascist tyrant-wannabe DeSantis who oppresses Disney for the crime of being popular.” How well do you think DeSantis is going to sell to the general with “Disney hater /attacker” attached to his name around the clock?
And that’s just me picking one obvious vector of attack. The media is large enough they’ll have thousands of operatives testing every other vector out there until they find effective ones that they can latch onto and then meme through November.
If you’re not prepared to fight the lawfare and media rigging then it doesn’t matter who you pick, Biden will be back in office.
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You said that well.
Just to amplify, I know thoughtful ex-Africa missionaries at my church, with adopted(but grown and out of the house) special needs kids. Smart, husband works at a major university, STEM. Pro-life, anti-trans. Yet, he said about Trump in 2020, like he was reading from a CNN script, “I will never vote for Trump, he’s a liar. ”
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Yeah. Graham put it best:
I am ashamed that I once fell for the chicanery. Think of someone you know who has a bad smell about them and ask yourself “What exactly did this person do wrong?” Often you find the answer is %^$&* all. Or they should in fact be commended for arriving first on the scene of a scandal like Rotherham.
If anyone wants to think “oh we just need to pick someone who can’t ever be accused” I’d like to remind them that Jesus Christ Himself was accused and had a trial over it (for which He was executed).
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I personally know people who are conservatives who will not vote for Trump due to his flaws. It’s likely that those people would vote for De Santis if the GOP chose him at the convention. The question then would be down to how many votes that would gain the GOP candidate as opposed to how many votes would be lost from MAGA folks who’ll never vote for anyone but Trump. The obvious answer is that we don’t know. We don’t know if the hardcore MAGA folks are willing to elect Biden is Trump isn’t the candidate.
Yes, the MSM and the left are going to lie about whoever the GOP candidate is, they’re also likely to cheat to wherever extent they possibly can.
I guess the only option is to surrender to the Trump tribe and accept the inevitable. It’s clearly not even worth trying to find a less problematic candidate because we must roll the dice with Trump no matter what.
I’m simply agreeing with the premise of the post.
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The time to answer that question is called “the primaries” and it was pretty well answered there.
How are you defining “less problematic candidate” that doesn’t give the MSM and democrats veto power over your selection?
We had a less problematic candidate once. His name was “Romney.” How well did that go?
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Bad take. DeSantis was rejected by the voters. You are right, DeSantis is great. But he’s already been tested in the primaries, and he was rejected. Just because he’s YOUR preferred candidate does NOT mean that Republicans should ignore the primary results and install your guy because the Democratic establishment scored a hit on Trump with one of their dirty tricks. You are making a bad suggestion out of arrogance and hubris. DeSantis can’t even get Republicans to turn out, much less beat the Democratic nominee.
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I also wanted a de Santis presidency. Problem is we can’t stop now. We all basically know they stole the election and we all basically know Trump was railroaded (event the NYT published an editorial expressing doubt about the trial which for them is wild). If we let it stand and try to get back to “business as usual”, we are done for. Maybe we already were.
We cannot pretend like this is just a one off. The mask is basically completely off. The leftist plan is complete victory forever, always has been, but they’ve been held back almost miraculously despite controlling nearly all major institutions with a few tentative exceptions.
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Are you even serious right now?
I honestly wondered about those Russians who as they were being loaded on to the trains cried out “oh if only Stalin knew!” I honestly wondered if anybody could be that unaware. But congrats, you have shown that yes, some folks are that naïve.
But sure, go ahead and hand the Democrats veto rights over any Republican candidate. Don’t want someone to run? Just invent some charges to slap them with and the candidate can be thrown under the bus right away.
Congrats on your permanent second class political party. You’ll get to win when they say you can. I’ll see you on the train.
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“The time to answer that question is called “the primaries” and it was pretty well answered there.”
But was it? As I recall this recent verdict happened long after the primaries were decided. Are you suggesting that during the period between the primaries (many of which were pointless) and the convention that either party is absolutely bound to the candidate who “won” the primaries?
“How are you defining “less problematic candidate” that doesn’t give the MSM and democrats veto power over your selection?”
Apparently in a similar way to WK. One with an excellent track record of achievement in elected office, one without the habit of failing to honor his wedding vows, one who’s less divisive. This notion that we as individuals are somehow compelled to support Trump absolutely is bizarre to me. Especially as Christians. I’ll likely vote for Trump if he’s the candidate because his policies are more closely aligned with my preferences. But that doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t or can’t honestly evaluate his strengths and weaknesses.
“We had a less problematic candidate once. His name was “Romney.” How well did that go?”
OK, I guess the existence of Romney as a candidate in 2012 means that we can never support any other candidates that are “less problematic” or advocate for candidates with less character flaws to represent the GOP.
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I think in my case, I’m watching how he is labeling real conservatives who oppose him in a primary as RINOs (when they have perfect 100% records on conservative positions) and thinking, “I don’t have to lift a finger for this man”.
He tried to push an amnesty for illegals and he didn’t build the wall or drain the swamp like he promised. Now he supports a new HQ for the corrupt politicized FBI. No, I’m not going to do a thing for him.
DeSantis turned a .5% win into a 20% re-election win. Trump failed to do that. Why would I back a loser?
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Those are all excellent points and good reasons not to back Trump. Are you saying that you wouldn’t vote for him in the general election?
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If I lived in a purple state, I would vote for him. Since I am in a bold red state, I’m writing in Ron DeSantis.
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Unfortunately I’m in a blue state and I suspect that my vote won’t matter regardless of how I vote for president. I’m currently leaning toward voting Trump, but more concerned about down ballot where we might have a chance to make a small difference.
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