James Pethokoukis says we’re doomed. (H/T ECM)

Excerpt:

 In the seven quarters since [August 2010], the U.S. economy has grown at an average annual clip of just 2.1%, including just 1.7% last year.

And right now, 2012 looks like more of the same. GDP expanded at a mere 1.9% pace in the first quarter.

And after a weak retail sales number today, Wall Street economists have been slashing their second-quarter GDP forecasts:

• Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 1.6% from 1.8%.
• Bank of America/Merrill Lynch cut its forecast to 1.9% from 2.4%.
• Macroeconomic Advisers cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.
• CIBC World Markets cut its forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%.
• Barclays Capital cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.1%
• Action Economics cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.

This analysis from JPMorgan provides a good summary:

After today’s retail sales report our best estimate is that second quarter real GDP is currently tracking a 2.0% annual growth rate, lower than our prior projection of 2.5%. Moreover, we see some downside risk to our new forecast. The largest reason for the downward revision is today’s retail sales report, which lowers our tracking of real consumer spending growth from 2.8% to 2.2%. … In addition, first quarter GDP, which currently prints at 1.9%, looks to be tracking closer to 1.7%. Given the weaker momentum in first half growth, achieving our second half outlook for 2% growth will require more things to go right than wrong, which hasn’t been the case recently.

The current White House forecast of 3% GDP growth this year looks hopelessly out of reach. And growth this anemic is probably not fast enough to generate enough sustained job growth to bring down the unemployment rate.

At this rate, I would say that we will be back in a recession within 12 months. Obama simply isn’t doing anything to stop the bleeding.