From NewsMax. (H/T ECM)
Excerpt:
In the first significant drop in Jewish support for a Democratic Party candidate in over two decades, President Barack Obama has seen a 10-point plunge in support among Jewish voters, according to the Gallup polling agency.
To put the decline in perspective, Obama is pulling in the same support among Jews as Michael Dukakis, the former Massachusetts governor who lost to George H. W. Bush in 1988.
Gallup notes the 10-point drop is “five points worse than his decline among all registered voters compared with 2008.”
Specifically, Obama currently has the support of 64 percent of Jewish registered voters, according to Gallup. This is 10 percent less than the percentage of Jews who voted for Obama in 2008. Republican Mitt Romney enjoys 29 percent support among Jews.
The move is significant because American Jews have been bedrock supporters of the Democratic Party for decades. Often regarded as instinctively liberal but hawks on support for Israel, Jews are a key voting bloc in Florida, one of a handful of high electoral vote “swing” states Obama must win to defeat Romney. Their votes also could make a difference in a close race in Ohio or Pennsylvania.
The Republican Jewish Coalition notes the 29 percent of Jewish voters who support Romney, represents the “highest level of Jewish support for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years.” RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks said that if the numbers hold in November, they would spell “a disaster” for Obama and his party.
Gallup noted that while Jews are only 2 percent of the general population, Jews tend to vote in higher numbers than other groups – 83 percent of Jewish registered voters said they definitely would vote in comparison to 78 percent of the general public.
Florida (3.4% Jewish), Pennsylvania (2.3%) and Ohio (1.3%) all have significant Jewish populations. If the Republicans win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, I don’t think they can be defeated. This is a big deal.
It could be a big deal, but not likely. Despite the Republican Jewish Coalition putting their best face on this, I think Romney and the Republicans will be disappointed if those numbers hold.
A year ago, Obama had a 54% approval rating among Jewish voters. If 64% now favor Obama, that’s not such great news for Romney. (It’s just what you’d expect since 64% of Jewish voters are Democrats)
And keep your eye on the choice of running mate. In the summer before the last election, McCain had 34% Jewish support. That dropped to 22% after McCain picked Palin as VP.
I’m not sure how much the “Jewish vote” matters anyway. Pennsylvania wasn’t close in 2008. True, Florida and Ohio were close but it seems unlikely that relatively small swings among such a small percentage of the population matter more than economic issues and far more decisive demographics like latinos and women.
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Ghost may be right.
This is pure speculation, but it may be that many Jews who take their faith seriously continue to make aliyeh to Israel, so that we are looking at a constantly filtered subset – assimilated/liberal/Reformed Jews in poll statistics, compared to Israeli and other Jews.
Furthermore, the significance of Jewish support depends not just on percentages but overall numbers. Would anyone care if the Comanche vote polled 95% for Obama?
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